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Introductory Course

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Welcome

Welcome to Intuitive Bayes

Course Welcome and Orientation

Github Repository and Code Access

Intuitive Bayes Discourse Community

Course Presurvey

Optional Orientation: Github

Optional Orientation: Discourse

Optional Orientation: Podia

About this course

Why We Created This

What is Different About This Course

Who is This Course For

Playmobil vs Lego

Comparison to Other Approaches

When Does Bayes Work Best

Real World Applications

Prerequisites and Outline

Lesson Summary

Lesson References

Lesson Feedback Form

How It All Fits Together

Lesson Introduction

Considering Multiple Solutions

Statistics just becomes counting

Inside the Magic Machine

The Magic of Sampling

Doing it in Code

Lesson Summary

Lesson References

Lesson Exercises

Beta Lesson Feedback Form

AB Testing Hands On

Lesson Introduction

Installing PyMC

Setting Up The Model

Getting the Plausible Values

Getting Analytical

Putting it All Together

Lesson Summary

Lesson References

Lesson Exercises

Lesson Feedback Form

Computational Distributions

Lesson Introduction

Distributions and Uncertainty

Distribution Inputs: Parameters

Distribution Outputs: PMF/PDF

Two Types of Samples

Two Types of Spaces

Lesson Recap

Lesson References

Lesson Exercises

Lesson Feedback Form

Bayes Rule

Lesson Introduction

Prior Distribution

Likelihood Distribution

Posterior Distribution

Prior and Posterior Predictive Distributions

Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Common Distributions in Modern Bayes

Lesson Recap

Lesson References

Lesson Exercises

Lesson Feedback Form

Bayesian Linear Regression

Lesson Introduction

The Setting

Exploring the data -- and why it matters

Visual Exploratory Analysis

A Non-Bayesian Linear Regression

A Simple PyMC model

Adding Predictors to our Model

Predicting Out-of-Sample

From Predictions to Business Insights

The Bayesian Workflow

Lesson Summary

Lesson References

Lesson Exercises

Lesson Feedback Form

Hierarchical Linear Regression

Lesson Introduction

Motivation for Hierarchical models

Distributions Over Parameters

Hierarchical Models

Effect of Hierarchy

Power of Bayes

Lesson References

Lesson Exercises

Lesson Feedback Form

The next steps in your Bayesian exploration

Continuing your journey after this cousre

Post Course Feedback

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